Southern Crescent Amateur Radio Club

First a reminder that tonight’s net will have a simplex net immediately following the normal Monday night net. The simplex net will take place on 146.530MHz simplex. Everyone is encouraged to participate, we need all the relays we can get.

Stacy Kirkwood forwarded the following information from GEMA.

GEORGIA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY

Situation Awareness Statement #1

Tropical Storm Ida: Monday, November 9, 2008
Hurricane OPCON 4 – SOC Level 3 (Monitoring)

Map 1: Tropical Storm Ida forecast track valid November 9, 2008 at 10:00 am EST.

Overview:

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Ida which has sustained winds of 70 mph and is weakening. Ida is currently located at 26.5º N Latitude and 88.3º W Longitude or about 285 miles south-southwest of Pensacola, Fl. Ida is moving toward the north-northwest at 17 mph and may make landfall on the central Gulf coast sometime before sunrise Tuesday morning. Following landfall, Ida will make a turn toward the east and move along / near the southern Georgia / northern Florida border.

Threat to Georgia:

Rainfall and Flooding:

Map 2: Hydrometeorological Prediction Center rainfall prediction valid from 8:00 am EST today through 8:00 am EST Wednesday.

Rainfall totals from Ida are forecast to be sufficient to produce some flooding in northern and central Georgia. The current two-day rainfall totals – which will mostly fall between 7:00 am Tuesday and 1:00 am Wednesday – range from four to six inches with isolated higher totals. The rainfall totals expected from Ida have prompted the National Weather Service (NWS) to issue a Flash Flood Watch for northern and central Georgia that is valid from late tonight through early Wednesday. The watch area is generally north of a line from Columbus to Macon to Warrenton. The highest rainfall totals are anticipated from Carrollton to metro Atlanta to Gainesville. Lesser amounts (1″ – 2″) are forecast for southern portions of the state.

The rainfall from Ida will cause creeks and streams to rapidly rise Tuesday producing minor flooding. Minor flooding along main-stem rivers is possible. Areas most likely to experience flooding include the mountainous areas of the north and metro Atlanta. No major or widespread significant flooding is anticipated at this time, however all are urged to maintain a close watch on flood prone areas and monitor the system’s progress via their local NWS office.

Winds:

Tropical Storm Ida will be making landfall along the Gulf coast tomorrow morning and moving eastward toward southwest and southern Georgia on Tuesday and through the state on Wednesday. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) the highest probabilities for tropical storm force winds (winds between 39 and 73 mph) exist in southwest Georgia where probabilities range from 50% to 60%. Accordingly, the NWS has issued a Tropical Storm Wind Watch for portion of southwest Georgia.

At this time, no major long-term sustained wind event is anticipated in Georgia; however, low-end tropical storm force winds will be possible on Tuesday which may produce sporadic power outages and potentially downed trees.

Tornadoes:

As Tropical Storm Ida moves eastward into southern Georgia on Tuesday and Wednesday, a minor chance for some isolated / weak / brief tornadoes exists. The most likely location for potential tornadoes will be far southern Georgia from the Georgia-Alabama border to the Georgia coast. At this time, the Storm Prediction Center has NOT issued a slight or higher risk for severe thunderstorms.

Summary:

Heavy rain will affect most of central and north Georgia Tuesday through Wednesday morning. Local emergency management officials should monitor flood prone areas for problems, although widespread major flooding is unlikely. The State Operations Center is partially activated as of 5:00 AM Tuesday and Emergency Support Functions are on alert if needed. The State is monitoring any potential fuel supply issues as well, no major disruptions are expected.

Follow-up Awareness Statements will be issued as deemed appropriate.

Hurricane Tropical Storm Ida is headed our way. While the Florida pan handle, Southern Alabama and Southern Georgia are expected to bear the brunt of the storm, we need to keep away of the situation just in case there is an need to activate ARES or CERT. Also be aware that we are under a flash flood warning due to this storm until Wednesday. If any one wants to listen in to any of the HF hurricane frequencies you can find a very good list at http://www.hurricanefrequencies.com.

WTNT21 KNHC 090832
TCMAT1
HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
0900 UTC MON NOV 09 2009

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO WEST
OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI…INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FROM EAST OF INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 87.9W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT……. 30NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT……. 60NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT…….175NE 60SE 45SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 150SE 45SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 87.9W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 87.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 27.2N 88.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT… 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…175NE 75SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 29.6N 87.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT… 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…150NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 30.9N 86.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 75SE 75SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.0N 85.0W…EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 15NE 30SE 30SW 15NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z…ABSORBED BY FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 87.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

This is to let everyone know that Bryan Collins that comes to our meeting with Jim – Checks into the net via Land Line every week – and is at most of our functions – and member of ARES – has passed away last night. Jim White called me today to let us know. More info as we can get it.